In a true six-pointer at the bottom end of League One, with the chance to jump out of the bottom four on the line, we anticipate a tight encounter at St James Park and cannot quite pick a winner, with both sides keen to build on recent improvements.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
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