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League One | Gameweek 36
Mar 11, 2023 at 3pm UK
St James Park
LC

Exeter
2 - 1
Lincoln

Nombe (33', 73')
Hartridge (50'), Key (69'), Stansfield (72'), Blackman (88')
Hartridge (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
O'Connor (19')
O'Connor (81'), House (88')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Exeter
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, March 7 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Exeter City 1-1 Lincoln City

Lincoln's unbeaten run suggests they are hard to beat, so we think they will have enough quality to earn a point on Saturday. There is not a lot to split the two teams, and the last two meetings between the sides have also resulted in a draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawLincoln City
43.11% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 27.01% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 29.88% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 49.31% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.33% (0.0020000000000024 0)55.67% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.17% (0.0010000000000012 0)76.82% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.41% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)25.59% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.53% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)60.47%
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.27% (0.0049999999999955 0)33.73% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.61% (0.0039999999999978 0)70.38% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 43.11%
    Lincoln City 29.88%
    Draw 27%
Exeter CityDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 11.76%
2-1 @ 8.71%
2-0 @ 8.02% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-1 @ 3.96%
3-0 @ 3.64%
3-2 @ 2.15% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-1 @ 1.35%
4-0 @ 1.24% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 43.11%
1-1 @ 12.78%
0-0 @ 8.63% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 4.74%
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 27%
0-1 @ 9.38%
1-2 @ 6.95% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 5.1% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 2.52%
0-3 @ 1.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.72%
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 29.88%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Exeter
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 2-0 Cambridge
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 1-0 Exeter
Saturday, February 18 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 0-0 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, February 14 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Burton Albion 1-0 Exeter
Saturday, February 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 1-2 Charlton
Saturday, February 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, March 7 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 1-0 Oxford Utd
Saturday, March 4 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 1-1 MK Dons
Tuesday, February 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Forest Green 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-0 Portsmouth
Saturday, February 18 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Lincoln
Tuesday, February 14 at 7.45pm in League One


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