While Exeter are coming into this match on a brilliant run of nine games without defeat, the added incentive of a playoff place for Oxford Utd makes us believe they will win this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 44.07%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
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