SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford United | Draw | Exeter City |
44.06% ( -0.06) | 25.13% ( 0.09) | 30.81% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.67% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.33% ( -0.41) | 47.67% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.14% ( -0.38) | 69.86% ( 0.38) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% ( -0.2) | 21.64% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.24% ( -0.31) | 54.76% ( 0.3) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.04% ( -0.23) | 28.97% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.15% ( -0.29) | 64.86% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford United | Draw | Exeter City |
| 1-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.75% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.45% Total : 44.06% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.13% | 0-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 30.81% |
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