Oxford are six unbeaten in League One but have failed to earn enough maximums to be competing at the top end of the third tier and looked very unconvincing against Forest Green last time out.
Exeter have shown they possess the firepower to comfortably survive this season and it could be a case of Brown's brilliance securing them passage to the third round of the FA Cup on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 48.37%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
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