Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 36.73%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
-0.61) 
0.88) 
