Sunderland might believe that they need an advantage to take into the second leg due to Wednesday's excellent home form, but we are struggling to separate the two teams here. There is not an awful lot between them in terms of quality, and the two could cancel each other out in a 1-1 draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 46.49%. A win for Sheffield Wednesday had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Sheffield Wednesday win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sunderland in this match.
