Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.01) 
