Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
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