Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Tranmere Rovers had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Tranmere Rovers win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
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