Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Salford City had a probability of 35.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Salford City win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
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