Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stockport County win with a probability of 40.47%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stockport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.06) 
