Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 42.54%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
