SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 34.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colchester United | Draw | Swindon Town |
40.18% ( -0.81) | 25.33% ( 0.12) | 34.5% ( 0.69) |
| Both teams to score 56.3% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.39) | 47.42% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.37% ( -0.36) | 69.63% ( 0.36) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.6% ( -0.58) | 23.4% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.62% ( -0.84) | 57.38% ( 0.84) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.49% ( 0.23) | 26.51% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.29% ( 0.3) | 61.71% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colchester United | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.01% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 6.54% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.08% Total : 40.18% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.16)1-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.55% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.2% Total : 34.5% |
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