SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 37.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.28%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Colchester United | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.42% ( 1.23) | 24.07% ( -0.08) | 38.5% ( -1.15) |
| Both teams to score 61.19% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.78% ( 0.5) | 41.22% ( -0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.38% ( 0.51) | 63.61% ( -0.51) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.96% ( 0.86) | 22.04% ( -0.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.63% ( 1.29) | 55.37% ( -1.29) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.49% ( -0.34) | 21.5% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.45% ( -0.52) | 54.55% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colchester United | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.51% Total : 37.42% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.07% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.24)0-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.16)1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.64% Total : 38.5% |
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