With two porous defences going head-to-head, we expect neither of the teams to come away with a clean sheet here. That said, we also fancy the home side to get the job done at the end of the 90 minutes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Colchester United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Colchester United.
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