Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 26.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
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