Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
-0.01) 
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