Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
-0.47) 
0.47) 
