Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.15) 
