Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 47.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Tranmere Rovers had a probability of 26.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a Tranmere Rovers win it was 0-1 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
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