Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.05) 
