SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.72%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Morecambe |
43.72% ( -0.32) | 24.38% ( 0.03) | 31.89% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 58.74% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.13% ( -0.04) | 43.87% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.74% ( -0.04) | 66.25% ( 0.04) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.79% ( -0.16) | 20.2% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.48% ( -0.26) | 52.51% ( 0.25) |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.61% ( 0.16) | 26.39% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.46% ( 0.21) | 61.54% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Morecambe |
| 2-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.64% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.91% Total : 43.72% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.37% | 1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.22% Total : 31.89% |
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