With an exceptional defensive record and lengthy recuperation period under their belts, Crawley can feel optimistic of avoiding a third successive loss against Morecambe, whose performances at home often leave a lot to be desired.
However, the Shrimps can never be underestimated in the face of adversity, and we think that a contest as tight as the standings would suggest will end all square.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morecambe win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morecambe win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Morecambe in this match.
-0.32) 
0.25) 
