Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.