SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 55.7%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 23.46% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.23%) and 1-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
55.7% ( -0.26) | 20.84% ( 0.08) | 23.46% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 64.34% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.59% ( -0.19) | 33.41% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.8% ( -0.22) | 55.19% ( 0.22) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.91% ( -0.14) | 12.09% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.37% ( -0.29) | 37.63% ( 0.29) |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.19% ( 0.03) | 26.81% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.9% ( 0.04) | 62.1% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.23% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.54% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 55.7% | 1-1 @ 9.01% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.38% Total : 20.84% | 1-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.6% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 23.46% |
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