Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.45%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.22) 
