Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-2 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
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