Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 31.34% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
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