Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 41.06%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
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