Morecambe have the worst home record in League Two this season, picking up just three points from seven games, while Port Vale have the strongest away record, boasting 16 points from eight matches. We are actually expecting it to be tight in terms of the scoreline on Saturday, but we are backing Port Vale to navigate their way to all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 46.32%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 27.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.
-0.11) 
0.13) 
