SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Academia Puerto Cabello win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Academia Puerto Cabello win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Academia Puerto Cabello would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Academia Puerto Cabello | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
38.78% ( 0.05) | 28.08% ( -0.02) | 33.14% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.28% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.24% ( 0.06) | 58.76% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.72% ( 0.05) | 79.28% ( -0.05) |
| Academia Puerto Cabello Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.58% ( 0.06) | 29.42% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.58% ( 0.07) | 65.42% ( -0.08) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( 0.01) | 33% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.41% ( 0.01) | 69.59% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 11.88% 2-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 1.6% Total : 38.78% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.07% | 0-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.3% 0-2 @ 5.97% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.7% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0)Other @ 2.56% Total : 33.14% |
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