Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 28.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
-0.15) 
0.02) 
