It is difficult to see Arminia Bielefeld progressing to the quarter-finals considering they face a team that sit two divisions above them.
Freiburg should be confident of winning given their opponents have not been the most prolific goalscorers in the third tier, and the visitors will no doubt be strong favourites on Tuesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arminia Bielefeld would win this match.
0.19) 
-0.38) 
