One goal could win this game, as two of Serie A's meanest defences in 2024 meet. Either a moment of magic or madness may prove decisive, with Atalanta's fine home record making them slim favourites to pull further clear of Lazio in the standings.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
0.22) 
-0.23) 
