SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Lazio |
61.56% ( 0.22) | 22.04% ( 0.01) | 16.4% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 48.12% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.86% ( -0.41) | 49.14% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.79% ( -0.37) | 71.21% ( 0.37) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.54% ( -0.06) | 15.46% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.68% ( -0.12) | 44.32% ( 0.12) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.92% ( -0.53) | 43.07% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.65% ( -0.45) | 79.35% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Lazio |
| 1-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.15% Total : 61.55% | 1-1 @ 10.47% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.79% Total : 22.04% | 0-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.63% Total : 16.4% |
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