Getting back on track in Serie A, Lazio can close the gap to fellow top-four contenders Atalanta by edging a tight game on Sunday. Both sides did well to pick up away wins in Europe this week, but an extra day's rest for the hosts could ultimately prove decisive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (9.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Atalanta BC
42.03% ( -2.42)	26.73% ( 0.24)	31.24% ( 2.18)

Both teams to score 50.75% (

0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.89% (

-0.09)

54.11% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.47% (

-0.08)

75.53% (

0.07)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.56% (

-1.26)

25.44% (

1.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.74% (

-1.75)

60.26% (

1.75)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.07% (

1.54)

31.93% (

-1.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.62% (

1.72)

68.38% (

-1.73)

Score Analysis

Lazio 42.02%

Atalanta BC 31.24%

Draw 26.72%

Lazio	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 11.11% ( -0.38) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.54) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( -0.26) 3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.39) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.18) Other @ 2.37% Total : 42.02%	1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.72%	0-1 @ 9.27% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( 0.36) 0-2 @ 5.29% ( 0.45) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.25) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.25) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.77% Total : 31.24%