While Atletico Mineiro have been the dominant side in this fixture over the last few years, they have struggled for wins this season and their home record is among the worst in the division.
Sao Paulo, on the other hand, are a side on the up this season, currently on a four-match league winning streak, and we feel they will add to that record with another victory in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 35.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
-0.19) 
0.07) 
