SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aucas in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aucas | Draw | Club Nacional |
44.96% ( 0.02) | 25.56% ( -0) | 29.49% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.55% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.9% ( 0.01) | 50.1% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.93% ( 0.01) | 72.07% ( -0) |
| Aucas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.75% ( 0.01) | 22.25% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.32% ( 0.01) | 55.69% ( -0.01) |
| Club Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.88% ( -0) | 31.12% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.55% ( -0.01) | 67.45% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aucas | Draw | Club Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.4% 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.82% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.57% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.92% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0)4-2 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 2.25% Total : 44.95% | 1-1 @ 12.14% 0-0 @ 6.92% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 8.08% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.72% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.07% 0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0)Other @ 2.93% Total : 29.49% |
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