Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 9, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Medina (85' pen.)
Gonzalez (12'), Sanabria (33'), Canga (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Orzusa (28'),
Silva (53'), Santacruz (71'), Duarte (66'),
Ojeda (83')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Aucas and Club Nacional.
Form, Standings, Stats
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aucas in this match.
| Result |
| Aucas | Draw | Club Nacional |
44.96% ( 0.02) | 25.56% ( -0) | 29.49% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.55% ( 0) |
| 49.9% ( 0.01) | 50.1% ( -0) |
| 27.93% ( 0.01) | 72.07% ( -0) |
| 77.75% ( 0.01) | 22.25% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.32% ( 0.01) | 55.69% ( -0.01) |
| 68.88% ( -0) | 31.12% ( 0.01) |
