Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Napoli win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
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