SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 21.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 2-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Barcelona |
21.91% ( 0.86) | 22.27% ( 0.31) | 55.82% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 57.01% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.91% ( -0.28) | 42.09% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.5% ( -0.28) | 64.5% ( 0.29) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.02% ( 0.65) | 32.97% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.44% ( 0.71) | 69.56% ( -0.71) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.05% ( -0.47) | 14.95% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.64% ( -0.9) | 43.36% ( 0.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Barcelona |
| 2-1 @ 5.77% ( 0.18) 1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.36% Total : 21.91% | 1-1 @ 10.39% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.27% | 1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 8.9% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 6.26% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.97% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 2.68% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.65% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 1.02% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.86% Total : 55.82% |
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