We said: Napoli 1-2 Barcelona (Barcelona win 3-2 on aggregate)
Even with their ongoing injury issues in the final third, Napoli can trouble and breach this shaky Barcelona backline on their own turf, but any hopes of advancing to the last-16 may be a little far-fetched.
Another European departure would be nothing short of disastrous for Barcelona, but Xavi's bountiful options in attack should help their side get the job done in the second leg.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
