Barcelona
1 - 1
Napoli

(Barcelona win 5-3 on aggregate)

Torres (59' pen.)

FT(HT: 0-1)

Zielinski (29')
Zambo Anguissa (39'), Fabian (70'), Meret (90+1')

The Match

This should be a cracking game of football, as both sides will believe that they can hurt the other in the final third of the field. Goals must be expected at Camp Nou on Thursday, and we are backing an entertaining 2-2 draw, which would leave the tie delicately poised ahead of the return fixture in Italy. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 37.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.32%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Napoli
37.07%	24.06%	38.86%

Both teams to score 61.21%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.81%

41.19%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.41%

63.59%

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.79%

22.21%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.37%

55.62%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.69%

21.31%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.74%

54.26%

Score Analysis

Barcelona 37.07%

Napoli 38.86%

Draw 24.05%

Barcelona	Draw	Napoli
2-1 @ 8.28% 1-0 @ 7.12% 2-0 @ 5.36% 3-1 @ 4.16% 3-2 @ 3.21% 3-0 @ 2.69% 4-1 @ 1.56% 4-2 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.47% Total : 37.07%	1-1 @ 11% 2-2 @ 6.4% 0-0 @ 4.73% 3-3 @ 1.66% Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.05%	1-2 @ 8.51% 0-1 @ 7.32% 0-2 @ 5.66% 1-3 @ 4.39% 2-3 @ 3.3% 0-3 @ 2.91% 1-4 @ 1.7% 2-4 @ 1.28% 0-4 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.69% Total : 38.86%