SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.34%) and 2-0 (5.4%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
40.95% ( 1.77) | 23.02% ( -0.15) | 36.03% ( -1.62) |
| Both teams to score 65.06% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.86% ( 0.6) | 36.14% ( -0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.75% ( 0.65) | 58.25% ( -0.65) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.79% ( 1.03) | 18.2% ( -1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.78% ( 1.73) | 49.21% ( -1.73) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.54% ( -0.52) | 20.46% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.08% ( -0.83) | 52.92% ( 0.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.25)3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.8% Total : 40.95% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.39% Total : 23.02% | 1-2 @ 7.99% ( -0.23) 0-1 @ 5.91% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.3)1-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.2)1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.11)2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.05% Total : 36.03% |
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