SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 37.23% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.26%) and 2-0 (5.62%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
38.74% ( 0.02) | 24.03% ( 0.01) | 37.23% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 61.34% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.97% ( -0.06) | 41.03% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.58% ( -0.06) | 63.42% ( 0.06) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.7% ( -0.02) | 21.3% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.76% ( -0.02) | 54.24% ( 0.03) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.94% ( -0.05) | 22.05% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.61% ( -0.07) | 55.39% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.38% 3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.28% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0)Other @ 2.7% Total : 38.74% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 24.03% | 1-2 @ 8.3% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.37% 1-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.71% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 37.23% |
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