SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Lugano | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Basel | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | FC Winterthur | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Luzern | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 7 | Lugano | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Basel | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 61.39%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 18.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 1-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.13%), while for a Lugano win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
61.39% ( 3.57) | 20.07% ( -0.98) | 18.54% ( -2.59) |
| Both teams to score 59.13% ( -1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.3% ( 0.74) | 36.7% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.14% ( 0.8) | 58.86% ( -0.8) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.45% ( 1.23) | 11.55% ( -1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.51% ( 2.59) | 36.48% ( -2.59) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.85% ( -2.09) | 33.14% ( 2.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.25% ( -2.38) | 69.74% ( 2.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.52)1-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.35)3-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.66)3-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.36)4-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.5)4-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.23)5-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.28)5-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.5% Total : 61.39% | 1-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.31)0-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.24% Total : 20.07% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.55) 0-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.41)0-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.38)2-3 @ 2% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.32)Other @ 3.08% Total : 18.54% |
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