SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 47.5%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
28.43% ( 0.15) | 24.07% ( 0.05) | 47.5% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 57.8% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.79% ( -0.11) | 44.21% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.41% ( -0.11) | 66.59% ( 0.1) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.14% ( 0.05) | 28.86% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.27% ( 0.06) | 64.73% ( -0.06) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.25% ( -0.13) | 18.75% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.86% ( -0.21) | 50.14% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 6.99% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.73% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.48% Total : 28.43% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.06% | 1-2 @ 9.42% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.06% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.26% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.2% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 47.5% |
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