SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 39.48%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.2%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
35.61% ( -0.08) | 24.9% ( -0.08) | 39.48% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 57.98% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.68% ( 0.37) | 45.32% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.34% ( 0.35) | 67.66% ( -0.36) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.12% ( 0.13) | 24.87% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.51% ( 0.18) | 59.48% ( -0.18) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.18% ( 0.24) | 22.82% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.46% ( 0.36) | 56.53% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 5.49% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 35.61% | 1-1 @ 11.66% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.89% | 1-2 @ 8.62% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.25% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.24% Total : 39.48% |
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