SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.97%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 0-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Youth Island |
46.97% ( -0.08) | 24.82% ( 0.04) | 28.21% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.13% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.35% ( -0.13) | 47.65% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.15% ( -0.12) | 69.85% ( 0.12) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.66% ( -0.09) | 20.34% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.27% ( -0.14) | 52.73% ( 0.13) |
| Qingdao Youth Island Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.21% ( -0.04) | 30.79% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.94% ( -0.05) | 67.06% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Youth Island |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.94% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.77% Total : 46.98% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.81% | 0-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.92% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.34% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.71% ( 0)Other @ 2.98% Total : 28.21% |
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