SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
35.61% ( -0.16) | 27.69% ( 0.08) | 36.71% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 48.74% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.92% ( -0.31) | 57.08% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.04% ( -0.25) | 77.96% ( 0.25) |
| Shanghai Shenhua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.47% ( -0.26) | 30.53% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.25% ( -0.31) | 66.75% ( 0.31) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.16% ( -0.11) | 29.84% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.07% ( -0.13) | 65.93% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 10.81% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 35.61% | 1-1 @ 13.07% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.11% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.66% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 36.7% |
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